The hot weather in Texas is likely to continue. Farmers and ranchers have spent much of the year preparing for severe summer droughts.
As of Monday, nearly 50% of the state was experiencing some degree of drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. This time last year, about 36% of the state was experiencing similar conditions.
May brought several wet spells to parts of Texas. But that may not be enough to change conditions in much of the state, according to the latest federal outlook released on May 31. Drought conditions are expected to improve, but dry conditions persist across much of the Panhandle. Drought conditions are expected to persist across much of South Texas.
Texas’ water supplies are already under pressure from growth and aging infrastructure. Unstable climate and hot summers put the state’s supply at greater risk. That’s especially bad news for the state’s agricultural economy, which consumes a lot of the state’s water resources.
About 700 miles south of the Panhandle, the produce industry is bracing for a tough season. While a drought has not yet occurred, if forecasts are correct, the Rio Grande Valley produce industry could see a 40% reduction in typical fruit and vegetable acreage due to dry weather later this summer.
Dante Galeazzi, CEO and president of the International Produce Association of Texas, said the region typically grows 60 to 80 million acres of fresh produce each year, but acreage has declined in the past four years due to a lack of available water.
Last year, lack of water caused a 30% reduction in the area planted with fruits and vegetables, Galeazzi said. Sown area is expected to drop another 10% this year.
“As we are without water for longer and longer, our people are thrust into a more dire situation,” Galeazzi said.
Galeazzi said it’s difficult for producers to get loans from banks or maintain business with grocery stores when forecasts don’t show an improvement in their ability to grow their products.
weather forecast
Droughts are more common this year than in the past three years, said climatologist John Nelson-Gammon, director of the Southern Regional Climate Center. additional. In fact, the last time it was as widespread as it is now was in 2022. That year, the weather remained dry throughout the first or second week of August.
However, Nielsen-Gammon noted that because Texas is a large state and conditions can vary widely from region to region, drought is unlikely to be as widespread as in 2022.
Drought is expected throughout the summer, which can be attributed to El Niño.
El Niño climate events are warming of surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. A spell of rain is expected over the next few months, with rainfall starting in mid-to-late October.
But until then, El Niño will suppress hurricane activity in the North Atlantic, which means there will likely be fewer tropical storms and hurricanes caused by El Niño, Nelson-Gammon said.
Predicting this far out is difficult. Nielsen-Gammon added that the forecast could change significantly if warmer-than-normal temperatures in the tropical Atlantic offset current trends, making a normal season possible.
Currently, the climate is in a neutral phase, with neither El Niño nor El Niña active. Barry Goldsmith, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Brownsville, said June is a little uncertain in terms of precipitation amounts in the South Texas region.
Current conditions look set to dry out. For July and August, there is confidence that these months will be drier than average across Texas.
“These are the driest two months on the calendar and that’s because El Niño is not only happening, but it’s getting stronger,” he said.
While El Niño could bring rain in the fall, as Nielsen-Gammon points out, Goldsmith said the earliest above-average rainfall in the valley will be in November, but even then, there’s no guarantee.
“Keep in mind, this is one of the drier parts of our calendar,” Goldsmith said.
Impact of rainfall
Rainfall throughout the Rio Grande Valley region in April and May helped South Texas growers expand plantings of leafy greens such as cilantro, parsley and kale. Galeazzi said it would also be good for the citrus industry, which is located entirely in the valley, since citrus trees need water every 30 days.
But these rains often provide only short-term benefits. For rainfall to bring substantial relief, it would have to flood the international reservoir that supplies the region’s water supply.
The drought has left water levels just above historic lows in two international reservoirs shared by the United States and Mexico that supply water to the Rio Grande.
This is a devastating problem for the valley, which relies on the Rio Grande for 90 percent of its water supply. The low water levels have exacerbated friction between the United States and Mexico, which agreed to share the river’s water through a 1944 international water treaty. Drought on both sides of the border has prevented Mexico from meeting its treaty obligations, although the two countries have struck smaller side deals to encourage Mexico to make up for its water shortages.
“Low storage means we could be facing a very challenging season next year unless we get some beneficial rainfall on these dams this summer,” Galeazzi said.
Drought has had a profound impact on the agricultural sector. At least one producer in Silicon Valley has had to sell hundreds of acres, Galeazzi said, adding that another company with operations in Silicon Valley and West Texas laid off at least 50 employees at both locations. . But it’s not just limited to agriculture. The impact is felt throughout the ecosystem.
Galeazzi noted that downsizing has a domino effect because less produce means farmers buy fewer seeds, boxes and trays. They also need fewer salespeople, fewer warehouses to store products, and fewer truck drivers to transport products.
Reporting in the Rio Grande Valley is supported in part by Methodist Healthcare South Texas.
This article first appeared in The Texas Tribune.
theme
agribusiness
