U.S. farmers are ignoring the USDA survey in the latest sign of distrust of government data.
Response rates for the USDA’s annual expected planting report hit a record low in March, with just over a third of the 73,800 farm operators surveyed responding to questions about the acreage planted this spring for a variety of crops including corn, soybeans, tobacco and chickpeas. In comparison, about 60% of farmers responded in 2018, with responses declining year by year since then. according to to government records.
Farmers say they are wary of sharing data because they believe the reports often count against them, especially as bumper harvests in recent years have put crop prices under pressure.
Doubts are growing as the USDA looks to become more responsive to farmers through a transformation that relies heavily on shared data. It also reflects a broader loss of trust in government data, especially as President Donald Trump questions federal statistics and information – employment report Voter statistics, even weather map.
Read more: Trump fires labor statistics director, raising concerns about data
iowa farmer Ben Riensh The agency said its various investigations were too arduous and that markets tended to plummet after corresponding reports were released, affecting their crop income.
“I don’t trust the data, I don’t trust the process, I don’t trust their employees,” Rienche said. “They also messed around with my business.”
The trend could complicate Trump’s efforts to win over farmers, a key voting bloc for him and the Republican Party. He hosted farmers at the White House several times and launched a $12 billion aid package For them in December “celebrate agriculture“—In March, there was a gold tractor on the White House lawn.
Intelligence from the farm is the lifeblood of USDA reporting, which produces findings and forecasts that influence the direction of global crop prices and ultimately help determine what consumers pay for food.
But distrust of the USDA’s conclusions is creating a vicious cycle, with the agency reporting less accurately due to a lack of donations, fueling more farmers’ suspicions. The lack of accuracy also causes futures markets to be more volatile.
The USDA’s January crop report is a prime example, surprise the market At that time, the agency unexpectedly raised its forecast for U.S. corn production by 1.6% to a record 17.021 billion bushels. Most expected a slight downward revision to the USDA’s previous forecast, and Chicago futures subsequently posted their biggest one-day drop in years.
While farmers are known to turn to corn in large numbers during the growing season — especially after China stopped buying U.S. soybeans — the unexpected increase in supply caught many off guard.
“The USDA’s claims are so far-fetched and without much explanation that it creates distrust in future reports,” Darin LaBar, who grows corn, soybeans and wheat in Michigan, wrote in a letter to the USDA. He was one of 240 people Answered The agency is asking for feedback on how to improve its data collection.
“You have to be able to trust the information that’s being given, and if you can’t trust that, why are you doing this report?” he said in an interview.
USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins said after the January report that the agency wanted to ensure it did not “driving price outcomes.” Deputy Minister Stephen Wadden also addressed the issue at the agency’s annual spring meeting with its data users.
“We know the data we provide affects the market; we know it affects farmers’ individual planning decisions, so we know the data we provide needs to be correct,” he said.
The National Agricultural Statistics Service said in an emailed statement that it is working to address declining response rates and “remains committed to providing timely, accurate and useful statistics for U.S. agriculture.”
montana farmer Sarah DeGern said she has little confidence in the reports because she knows producers (including herself) often fill them out when pressed for time and distracted by on-farm responsibilities. She said few people have the time to sit down and pull out the spreadsheets and other records they need to give accurate answers.
“If you’re in a hurry, you’re just trying to remember the numbers in your head,” DeGern said. “So I always question the accuracy.”
Seth Meyer, former chief economist at the USDA, is very familiar with these issues. He considers the data the agency collects from farmers to be the backbone of all analysis and assistance it provides to the agricultural sector. So when farmers don’t participate, he said, the data suffers, and then farmers lose more confidence in USDA’s findings.
“It’s not the farmers’ fault per se, but without them the problem wouldn’t be solved,” said Meyer, now director of the University of Missouri’s Institute for Food and Agricultural Policy. “USDA has to go out and say, ‘Hey, you have good reasons for wanting to do this.'”
The information collected by the agency is used primarily to track crop plantings and harvests and estimate domestic and global stocks and demand.
U.S. Department of Agriculture Under Secretary Richard Fordyce A potential solution is seen in the agency’s new “One Farmer, One Profile” initiative. The program is designed to streamline the way USDA obtains and internally shares the crop and farm information it needs from growers seeking to qualify for federal loans. Fordyce has been discussing with colleagues whether the information could be shared for investigative purposes.
“We may have some data,” Fordyce said. “We may be able to help pre-populate survey responses.”
Stephen Nicholson, head of crops at agricultural lender Rabobank, worries that low participation is undermining the institution’s reputation as the gold standard for agricultural information.
“I don’t want to lose that standard,” Nicholson said, adding that he encouraged farmers to fill out the survey. “This provides the market with better data, better information.”
Photo: Workers push carts filled with freshly picked beets on a farm in Leonardtown, Maryland. Photographer: Matt McLean/Bloomberg
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