Fertilizer makers are enjoying a windfall from Iran’s war, underscoring the impact of the upheaval of the conflict on supply chains for key crop nutrients.
CF Industries Holdings Inc. and Nutrien Ltd. both reported nearly 20% sales growth in the latest quarter, benefiting from higher prices for nitrogen fertilizers, which are applied to U.S. corn and soybean fields to support crop yields.
While the situation is good for producers, the results could exacerbate concerns among farmers and politicians about inflation in agricultural markets after growers already struggle with low crop prices and rising input costs. This upheaval follows previous chaos Pandemic and the war in Ukraine.
“The conflict with Iran is the third major supply and demand shock to the global nitrogen fertilizer market in the past six years and has exposed the fragility of the global nitrogen fertilizer supply chain,” CF Industries CEO Chris Bohn said on Thursday’s earnings call. “In an environment characterized by frequent geopolitical instability, we see the unique value of a network and true stability of quality assets that are difficult to replicate.”
Nitrogen fertilizer prices had already risen before the war began due to tight supplies, and faced their biggest price increases after the closure of the vital Strait of Hormuz. Granular urea prices in New Orleans have risen about 36% since the conflict began in late February, while prices in Egypt have risen more than 70%, according to Bloomberg Green Market data as of May 1.
Alexis Maxwell, a senior analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, said in a report that nitrogen fertilizer is indispensable, so farmers who have postponed its use may purchase it when supplies become more abundant. Meanwhile, prices for natural gas, a necessary input, have not risen as much in the U.S. as in other markets, allowing producers to achieve higher ammonia margins, Maxwell said.
Rising fertilizer prices have intensified scrutiny of the industry, which is controlled by just a handful of U.S. companies. Ministry of Justice and a series of probe Across various agricultural industries, investigation Bloomberg reported in March whether commercial fertilizer producers colluded to raise prices. The companies have not been accused of wrongdoing by antitrust officials, and the investigations will not necessarily lead to charges or lawsuits.
Illinois-based CF Industries reported earnings per share that more than doubled from a year ago. Canada-based Nutrien’s adjusted earnings per share more than quadrupled but fell short of analysts’ expectations. CF primarily produces nitrogen fertilizer, while Nutrien also produces phosphate and potash crop nutrients. Phosphate price Since the strait is the transport route for the product, the cost increases, but so does the cost of inputs required to manufacture the product.
Despite the strong results, Nutrien shares fell 7.3% to their lowest price in three months as the company maintained its previous guidance outlook. CF shares fell as much as 5.4% intraday.
Scotiabank analysts Ben Isaacson and Lucy Zhou wrote in a note earlier this week that agriculture and fertilizers are “hard to watch.” This is because rising costs and weak farmer sentiment have impacted demand. About two-thirds of Purdue’s monthly respondents opinion poll said they expect net agricultural income to decline in 2026 due to the Iran conflict.
“Our growing season is not over yet, so a lot can happen,” Nutrien Chief Financial Officer Mark Thompson said on an earnings call. “We’re not going to start predicting at this point in the planting season and year how the balance of the season is going to go.”
Photo: A tractor drops nitrogen fertilizer onto rows of romaine lettuce at Pisoni Farms near Gonzales, California, U.S., Wednesday, April 1, 2026. Governments are scrambling to secure supplies of key crop nutrients ahead of spring planting as war in the Middle East hampers the flow of goods and fuels fears of a global food crisis.
Copyright 2026 Bloomberg.
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