Vladimir Putin trumpeted Russia’s success in seizing control of Kupyansk in eastern Ukraine late last year, although Volodymyr Zelenskiy immediately disputed that claim in a video address from the town.
Russian troops are now being driven out of Kupyansk by Ukrainian forces, according to two sources in Moscow.
It’s an embarrassing reversal for President Putin as the warring sides prepare to intensify fighting again, with spring coming out of winter snow on the battlefields. The Russian Defense Ministry has yet to comment on the situation in the key railway hub town.
While the setback is more tactical than strategic for Russia, it underscores how Putin remains far from achieving his stated goals in a war that is now in its fifth year. Russian forces are quietly gaining some territory and Ukrainian forces are advancing in other areas, but the front lines are largely trapped and neither army can achieve a decisive breakthrough.
James Everard, former NATO’s deputy supreme commander for allied forces in Europe, said both sides were seeking to “deny their adversaries freedom of movement on both sides of the contact line, not just 30 kilometers but 300 kilometers.” “Whoever holds the depth can strangle the other side by blocking supplies and reinforcements. That’s combat.”
Hopes for a diplomatic solution to the war are being thwarted as U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran capture President Donald Trump’s attention. U.S.-led talks between Ukraine and Russia have stalled, with few signs that talks will resume soon on a potential peace deal.
People familiar with Kremlin discussions and the situation on the front lines say Russian forces are preparing to launch a new offensive. One of the people said that without a breakthrough in negotiations, the war could drag on for another year or two. Another person said progress was likely to be minimal as the military was unable to penetrate Ukraine’s drone defense wall.
Ukraine expects Russia to launch another offensive in April and May against the fortified cities of Slavyansk and Kramatorsk in the eastern Donetsk region, although Moscow may still lack the troops needed to capture the cities, said Mykola Bereskov, a researcher at the Kyiv Institute of National Security.
“Unfortunately, Russia is unable to penetrate our defenses, which means the focus may shift to destroying Ukraine’s critical infrastructure,” he said.
The battlefield calculations for both sides are extremely simple.
The Kremlin has said Russia’s military goal in 2026 is to take over the rest of Ukraine’s eastern Donbass, including the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, and as much other territory as possible to strengthen Moscow’s position in peace talks.
Moscow’s Defense Ministry said on Wednesday that its forces now control all of Luhansk. Ukrainian authorities have so far not commented.
For Ukraine, the strategy is to kill or wound more Russian soldiers than Moscow can recruit replacements, gradually eroding its ability to sustain its advance and creating opportunities for counterattacks.
Ukraine has set a goal of reducing Russian casualties by 50,000 per month, exceeding the Kremlin’s monthly average of 35,000 to 40,000 new recruits, but Kyiv has so far failed to achieve this goal.
“Russian forces are trying to intensify their offensive activities,” Zelensky said in a statement on Wednesday. postal “However, this will only result in greater losses on their part and will not disrupt our operations.”
Zelensky said on March 17 that Russia was recruiting as many as 45,000 people a month, and Ukraine had killed nearly 100,000 Russian soldiers in the past three months.
The United States told allies last week that it still believed it could bring Russia and Ukraine to the negotiating table, although there has been no progress and the two sides remain deeply divided. The company supports the U.S. decision to ease sanctions on some Russian oil sales but said it was temporary, according to a person familiar with the matter who asked not to be named because the matter is not public.
Russia has not backed down on its demands, which include withdrawing Ukrainian troops from the eastern Donetsk region, which Moscow’s forces have failed to capture during fighting since 2014. Ukraine rejected the concession, and the United States proposed turning the area into a free economic zone.
Zelensky expressed hope on Monday that trilateral discussions could restart in the coming weeks.
“I don’t think this is a dead end,” he said in a recording to reporters. “What if we face a dead end? Surrender? Relax?”
The surge in oil prices caused by the war in the Middle East has provided Moscow with a windfall and reduced Putin’s ability to finance the invasion. As Washington focuses its resources on the conflict with Iran, the government in Kyiv must consider the risk of a slowdown in the flow of U.S. weapons, including anti-aircraft missiles, purchased by its European allies.
Zelensky visited Middle Eastern countries over the weekend, seeking to benefit from sharing Ukrainian counter-drone expertise and technology with Persian Gulf states facing repeated attacks from Iran. He signed for 10 years defense agreement Saudi Arabia and Qatar are worth “billions of dollars,” he said.
Zelensky hopes to trade supplies of Ukraine’s low-cost drone interceptors with Gulf states to acquire the critical stockpile of anti-aircraft missiles he needs to protect Kiev and other Ukrainian cities from Russian attacks. He said he signed a diesel supply deal for more than a year during a visit to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, without elaborating.
While Russia continues its relentless air campaign against Ukraine, including attacks on energy infrastructure throughout the winter, Ukraine has also brought Putin’s war closer to home for Russians.
According to the Russian Security Council, there were more than 23,000 Ukrainian air strikes on Russian infrastructure in 2025, almost four times the 6,200 attacks in 2024.
According to the Interfax news agency, Security Council Secretary Sergey Shoigu said on March 17 that “the speed of development of destructive means (mainly unmanned systems) and the complexity of their methods of use make it impossible for any region in Russia to feel safe now.”
Ukraine is currently seeking to use drones to attack Russian oil export infrastructure at the Baltic Sea ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga, undermining Russia’s ability to benefit from rising crude prices.
Nick Reynolds, a land warfare researcher at the Royal United Services Institute in London, said improving economic conditions in Russia would lead to “stronger military recruitment and procurement than previously expected.”
Still, “Ukraine’s military adjustments may allow them to continue to minimize their own casualties and hold their ground throughout the summer while inflicting heavy losses on Russian ground forces,” he said.
Photo: Ukrainian artillery; Photo credit: Nikoletta Stoyanova/Getty Images
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