Scott Irlbeck crouched in a stunted wheat field in a parched area of West Texas, reaching into a crack wide enough to swallow it.
Last fall, crops planted in Ilbeck barely grew because it never rained. He now wants his insurance adjuster to declare it a total loss so he doesn’t have to spend money on expensive fuel to harvest it next month.
Fuel and commercial fertilizer costs have soared since the Iran war, making things even harder for farmers in the plains states of Texas, Kansas, Oklahoma, South Dakota and Nebraska.
Even before the war, farmers were struggling with renewed drought, high input costs and the impact of President Donald Trump’s trade policies, which have stymied export markets and depressed crop prices.
The cost of agricultural diesel has risen 72% since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz in late February, the Kentucky Farm Bureau wrote in prepared testimony for a U.S. Senate Agriculture Committee hearing this month. The farmers’ group said the price of urea, one of the main fertilizers produced in the Gulf, has increased by 55%, while the price of another nitrogen-based fertilizer has increased by 33%.
However, due to drought, farmers are looking at the prospect of reduced harvests to pay for it all.
Ilbeck, who has not purchased fertilizer in advance for the sorghum crop planted this month, said he may not use any fertilizer at all as soaring prices and severe drought reduce potential yields.
“There’s fuel, there’s drought, there’s fertilizer,” Ilbeck said, listing the challenges he faces. “I’ve struck out. Am I out?”
Drought ravages wheat
Texas is the third largest wheat-growing state in the United States, the second largest sorghum-growing state, and the largest cotton-growing state.
At Ilbeck Farm near Tulia, strong winds blow across dry, brown fields dotted with dirty clumps of cotton and brittle sorghum stalks from the previous season’s harvest.
U.S. farmers expected to produce minimal yields of hard red winter wheat, It has been used to make bread since 1957, according to the USDA.
“I was just waiting for it to die,” Ilbeck said.
More than 60% of the continental United States, with a population of about 153 million, is experiencing drought, up from 43% in early 2026 and 33% a year ago, according to the U.S. government’s latest drought monitoring report.
In Oklahoma, the rain may come too late for wheat growth in the hardest-hit areas, Oklahoma State University agronomist Amanda De Oliveira Silva said in late April.
“Rainwater can help protect what’s left, but it won’t reverse the damage that’s already been done.”
In South Dakota, farmers are reconsidering plans to fertilize wheat planted last fall because of high prices and poor growing conditions, said Clarence Winter, South Dakota State University Extension agronomist.
Asked for comment on fertilizer costs, the USDA said in a statement to Reuters that the entire Trump administration is focused on ensuring more affordable fertilizers are produced domestically.
war increases costs
For farmers like Tommy Salisbury, who grows wheat, sorghum and soybeans in Tulsa County, Oklahoma, rising input prices have wiped out the gains self-employed workers made under the Trump administration’s $12 billion aid package designed to offset the impact of tariffs.
“We’re paying input prices in 2026, but we’re getting crop prices and grain prices from the 1970s and 1980s,” he said.
USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins acknowledged the difficulties farmers are facing.
“We are seeing significant price increases at a time when our farm economy is struggling,” she told a news conference on Tuesday.
in a Post on X Last month, she said about 80% of U.S. farmers had locked in supplies last fall, before the war broke out.
However, a survey by the American Farm Bureau Federation, the main U.S. agriculture lobby group, found that most farmers cannot afford all the fertilizer they need this growing season.
The Farm Bureau said pre-order rates vary widely by region. While most farmers in the Midwest have fertilizer pre-ordered for 2026, that’s not the case in the Northeast or South.
The Farm Bureau said early buying is more common in the Midwest because many farmers rotate corn and soybeans and make buying decisions before planting. In the South, many farmers do not have fertilizer storage facilities, the group said.
Asked for comment, the USDA said it was continuing to evaluate fertilizer use data.
Kody Carson, who farms in the West Texas city of Alton, said he did not buy fertilizer in advance and may not buy it at all for his 2,400 acres of cotton.
He said the drought reduced his winter wheat yield from the 80 bushels per acre he expected to 18 to 20 bushels per acre.
“How can I be financially prudent and reserve this high-priced fertilizer when I don’t even know if I’m going to grow crops?” Carson said.
rely on religion
Tom Gregory, who grows cotton, corn and sorghum in Petersburg, Texas, also doesn’t buy fertilizer in advance. By April, he said, he was facing costs of $558 per ton, up from $402 per ton in February.
Gregory said he’s trying to do spring planting anyway because farming is his livelihood and a family tradition. He said he plans to use as little chemical fertilizer as possible.
In recent years, Gregory said he has tried to cope with rising input costs by increasing crop yields. He said his hopes for the strategy were ultimately dashed, first by the drought and now by rising fertilizer prices.
Gregory said he relied on his faith, family and exercise to get through it.
“I hope a merciful God will take care of us,” he said.
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